As North Carolina’s early voting period continues, current turnout data for Day 11 in the #ncpol early voting landscape provides a clear picture of party dynamics compared to the 2020 election cycle.
Party Breakdown:
• Democrats: Turnout stands at 938,168 voters this year, a significant decline from 2020’s 1,288,526 — a drop of 350,358 voters.
• Republicans: GOP voters, however, show a modest increase. With 961,872 ballots cast this year, the Republican count is up by 3,726 from the previous cycle.
• Unaffiliated: Unaffiliated voters have decreased slightly, down by 25,937 compared to 2020, from 930,607 to 904,670.
The term “cannibalization” in electoral contexts refers to a party depleting its typical Election Day voters in early voting, potentially resulting in fewer votes on Election Day itself. With 278,389 Republicans who voted on Election Day in 2020 yet to cast ballots, versus 192,517 Democrats and 269,693 Unaffiliated voters, questions arise as to whether GOP early voting might eat into their typical Election Day turnout.
As the election approaches, both parties will closely watch these numbers to gauge turnout efficacy and strategize last-minute voter mobilization.
